The next decade for global pig production

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021–2030 provides an insight into global pork production and consumption over the next 10 years. Pork production is projected to increase by 13% to 127 million tons by 2030, higher than the baseline reduced by ASF in 2018-2019. ASF outbreaks in Asia will continue to affect many countries at the start of the forecast period, with China, the Philippines and Vietnam being the most affected.

Global pork production is expected to remain below peak levels until 2023 due to ASF outbreaks, followed by a steady increase in production for the remainder of the forecast period. Pork production in China and Vietnam is forecast to start increasing in 2021 and reach 2017 levels by 2023. Most of the increase in production in ASF-affected regions will come from a shift in production from personal subsidiary plots to commercial production facilities. Pork production is projected to decline slightly in the EU amid environmental and public issues limiting its expansion. Russia - the fourth largest pork producer - has nearly doubled production in the past 10 years in response to import bans and thanks to domestic policies to restructure and stimulate production. By 2030, a further 10% increase in production is expected.

Over the next 10 years, global pork consumption is projected to increase to 127 million tons, accounting for 33% of the total increase in meat consumption. In terms of per capita consumption, consumption is expected to increase slightly over the forecast period, with consumption declining in most developed countries. In the EU, a decline is expected as changes in population composition affect taste preferences in favor of poultry, which is not only cheaper but also considered a healthier food. In developing countries, where per capita pork consumption is half that of developed countries, growth is projected to be modest. Growth will continue in most Latin American countries, where per capita pork consumption has risen sharply on the back of relatively favorable prices, which have made pork one of the most popular meat products, along with poultry, to meet the growing needs of the middle class. Several Asian countries with traditional consumption of pork are also projected to increase their consumption after the effects of ASF weaken.

SOURCE: Sfera FM