Pork production continues to grow

Due to the introduction of a duty of 25% on the import of pork into Russia, as well as the growth of domestic production, for the first time in the country's history, imports of these products have been practically reduced to zero, and exports have begun to increase significantly. At the same time, per capita consumption of pork has reached a record over the past decade - more than 29 kg per year.

World meat production in 2019 decreased significantly and amounted to 263.1 million tons against 268.4 million tons in 2018.The main reason for this decline was the outbreak of African swine fever in Southeast Asia, which affected the world's largest consumer and producer of pork - China. As a result, in 2019 they produced 11.5 million tons of pork less than in 2018.Therefore, in 2020, for the first time in many years, the world pork production was less than 100 million tons, and the volume of broiler meat received exceeded the volume the resulting pork.

The results of outbreaks of African swine fever in Southeast Asia were so severe that pork production continued to decline even after the epidemic had stabilized. In 2020, China received 36.34 million tons of this meat against 54 million tons in 2018 (Table 2). And Brazil and the United States, due to the current pork shortage in the Chinese market, have significantly increased production to increase supplies to China.

According to the USDA forecast, world meat production in 2021 may grow by 5% against the level of 2020. This will happen mainly due to the increase in the volume of pork produced in China and Vietnam, where the industry is beginning to gradually recover from the epizootic. Export opportunities to China will continue in 2021. The production in the country will still not reach the previous level.

In 2020, the share of Russian products in the global meat production accounted for more than 4% (broiler meat, beef, and pork). Beef production in Russia in 2020 increased by 0.52% (to 1.63 million tons), broiler meat - by 0.04% (to 5.01 million tons). The biggest increase was in pork - 8.76%. The production of this type of meat increased by more than 350 thousand tons in carcass weight - up to 4.28 million tons.

According to forecasts, in 2021, pork production in Russia will grow by another 170 thousand tons in carcass weight (up to 4.45 million tons). Already in 2020, Russia for the first-time outstripped Brazil in terms of the volume of this type of meat and took the fourth place in the world ranking of its producers, and in 2021 the country may further strengthen its position. The United States remains the largest pork exporter in the world. In 2020, the country exported 2.35 million tons of pork abroad. In second place is Spain (2.13 million tons). These states have most noticeably increased the supply of pork abroad over the past two years. Such a sharp increase in world exports is due to China's desire to fill the pork deficit in the domestic market.

Spain remains the main supplier of pork to China, which quadrupled its exports to this country in two years (to 0.93 million tons in 2020). The second place is taken by the USA (0.7 million tons), the third - by Brazil (0.48 million tons). It should be noted that the supply of pork to China from Germany in 2020 increased to 0.46 million tons. The indicator could have been higher if it were not for the emergence of foci of African swine fever in some regions of the country in 2020. This led to a decrease in the rate of increase exports due to China's tightening control over potentially dangerous states from the point of view of an epizootic situation.

Russia has not yet been able to obtain permission to import pork into China. This country does not recognize the principle of regionalization for pig production, such as for crop production. When an outbreak of African swine fever occurs, even in the most remote point, China considers the entire state to be potentially dangerous. It is very important to continue to conduct a dialogue on this issue, because the Chinese market remains one of the most attractive for pork exports. Russia and Vietnam were able to come to an understanding, and Russia has access to this market since November 2019. Increasing supplies to Vietnam will have a positive effect on Russia's image in Southeast Asia and the development of relations with Vietnam's neighboring states.

Considering the growth of domestic production, the development of export markets for Russia is becoming more and more important. It is necessary to continue to increase supplies to Vietnam. This will facilitate the opening of the markets of neighboring states, primarily China. In addition, it is necessary to stabilize the epizootic situation inside the country, to minimize the likelihood of the occurrence of foci of African swine fever, as in November 2020 - January 2021, by strengthening control over animal health by veterinary services and enterprise specialists.

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