Meat in Russia will continue to get cheaper
According to estimates by Sergei Yushin, head of the National Meat Association, in 2020 Russians can expect a decrease in meat prices. In particular, we are talking about pork.
A similar trend, obviously, will continue, the interlocutor believes. It appeared against the background of a continuing increase in meat production in the Russian Federation, growth in supply and increased competition. Yushin recalled that the level of meat consumption in the country by world standards is quite high - 76 kg per person per year, which is comparable to the figure in developed countries - 82 kg. Currently, according to him, the market has reached a certain limit of consumer demand, which has led to lower prices for products..
First of all, the cost of pork fell sharply. Today in wholesale it costs about 25% lower than in the fall of 2014, and pulls poultry meat. These cheaper types of meat do not allow beef to rise in price. In our opinion, the average prices for pork in 2020 will be 5–7% lower than in the past.
The fall in retail prices in this market is also recorded by the Federal State Statistics Service. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the cost of fresh, chilled and frozen pork, except for stews and soup set, fell in the last reporting period of the department, in November 2019, compared with the same period in 2018, by 2.2%, to 267.6 rubles per 1 kg. Boneless (including semi-finished large and small pieces that have not been processed: escalope, chops, tenderloin, roasting, schnitzel, etc.) for this period of time fell by 2.3%, to 358.36 rubles per 1 kg, in November 2019 year.
The price of poultry meat in general is also going down. Chickens chilled and frozen for soup and frying, including broilers of various types of cutting, in November 2019 fell by 3.5% compared to the same period in 2018 and amounted to 143.44 rubles per 1 kg. But the leg (including the separately sold thighs and lower legs) Rosstat estimates at 170.61 rubles, which is 2.3% higher than the cost indicator of the previous reporting period.
The relative rise in price against the background of other products showed chilled and frozen turkey meat of various types of cutting, including separately sold thighs and drumsticks, plus natural semi-finished large and small pieces that were not processed: fillets, steaks, medallions, etc. According to the statistics department, for 1 kg of such a product, on average, in November 2019, Russians paid 5.7% more than in the same autumn month a year earlier - 375.12 rubles.
In 2019, the demand for turkey meat continued to grow in Russia. The reason for this is the active promotion of this type of meat as an alternative to the usual chicken, beef and pork. In addition, the expansion of the product line was played by key players in this market. However, it is too early to talk about the presence of turkey meat even in half of the consumer baskets of Russian families.
The national average consumer prices for beef (except boneless meat, fresh meat, chilled, ice cream, as well as stew and soup set) in November 2019 increased by 5.9% compared to the same period in 2018, amounting to 347.97 rubles in calculation for 1 kg. The cost of boneless meat (including semi-finished large and small pieces that have not been processed: entrecotes, langet, frying, goulash, beef stroganoff, azu, tenderloin, etc.) grew over the year by only 2.2%, to 488.79 rubles for 1 kg.
The highest growth in the past year was shown by lamb (except boneless meat, that is, steamed, chilled, ice cream, stew and soup set). So, in November 2018, the average cost for this type of meat was 371.39 rubles per 1 kg, in November 2019 - 420.95 rubles. An increase of 13.3%.
The high prices for mutton can now be largely explained by a significant increase in the export of mutton to Iran - otherwise, since the cost of production of mutton is generally high, without access to foreign markets, producers would most likely be forced to restrain selling prices, taking into account low domestic demand.
According to preliminary estimates by the National Meat Association, the volume of exports of frozen meat and offal from Russia last year exceeded 300 thousand tons with a total production in slaughter weight of 10.6 million tons.
It is noteworthy that aquaculture has practically no effect on the meat market, since fish are very much tied to foreign exchange and international markets.
Fish and seafood have risen in price in recent years. As I understand it, the Russians reduced their consumption in favor of meat. This product today benefits from rising prices for other food items,” said Yushin.
The overall picture of meat consumption in Russia is stable: poultry meat, as the cheapest, leads the domestic market, followed by pork. Three meat closes red (beef, lamb). At the same time, if the first and third positions show minimal annual growth in consumption, then in the case of pork, growth is 1.5% per year, analysts at NEO Center said.