Russia will increase pork production by 9.7% in 2020

In 2020, Russia is planning to produce 4.3 million Mt of pork (in slaughter weight), which is 9.7% y-o-y. This was said in FINMARKET.RU website with reference to the National Union of Pig Farmers of Russia

As follows from the message of the General Director of the Union of Pig Farmers of Russia Yuri Kovalev at the international conference "Russian Pig Breeding 2020-2025," the increase will be higher - 11.8%, up to 3.8 million Mt in agricultural enterprises. "The total production growth may exceed 380 thousand Mt, which is twice as much as last year, "he said. In personal subsidiary farms, production is projected to decrease by 4.2%, to 455.5 thousand Mt. Production from farmers will also be reduced - by 5.8%, to 38 thousand Mt. According to the forecast of the Union, pork exports (including fat and pork variety meat exports) in 2020 should grow by 80 thousand Mt (by 74%) to 188 thousand Mt. Together with a decrease in imports by 73 thousand Mt, 153 thousand Mt of pork "ease" the market.

In value terms, pork exports will be 80% up to $316 million, and this will happen, including due to an increase in the share of meat in the overall structure of pork exports, which also includes fat and pork variety meat exports. At the same time, in the total structure of the meat exports cost, the share of pork products will reach 37%. In general, the Union estimates the value of meat exports this year at $845 million (about 506 thousand Mt), which is 45-50% up y-o-y.

According to the Union, this year Russian pork was exported to 20 countries. Moreover, 90% of deliveries have been to Vietnam (an increase to 57 thousand Mt from 11.3 thousand Mt last year), Hong Kong (49.9 thousand Mt against 26.9 thousand Mt), Ukraine (up to 39.6 thousand Mt against 30.3 thousand Mt) and Belarus (a decrease to 22.5 thousand Mt from 23.6 thousand Mt).

As Kovalev noted, the "easing" of the market in the conditions of its overstocking, as well as a number of other factors, contributed to the growth in demand for pork in the Q3 and, accordingly, an increase in prices. As a result, if earlier the Union predicted a decrease in wholesale prices for pigs by 10% at the end of the year, then the new estimate is no more than 3%, he said.

According to the Union's forecast, this will allow the industry to protect at least 33.5 billion rubles of revenue.

SOURCE: based on materials from the site FINMARKET.RU