Ukrainian experts predict a further increase in pork prices in the country
The increase in the price on live pigs in the Ukrainian market in February amounted to 21%. The trend for raising the pork price will continue until the end of the third quarter of this year. According to Sergey Kasyanov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the agricultural holding KSG Agro, and Oksana Yurchenko, President of Ukraine Association of the Pig Farmers, the press service of the agricultural holding KSG Agro reports.
The increase in pork prices by 21% at the end of February this year compared to the end of January (46.1 hryvnia/kg vs. 38.4 hryvnia/kg), gives Ukrainian pig farmers optimism. Moreover, according to Sergey Kasyanov, the trend towards a rise in pork price will continue at least until the end of the third quarter of this year.
"The end of last year turned out to be very pessimistic for pig farmers. The quarantine crisis, as well as the restrictions and lockdowns associated with it, seriously reduced the solvent demand on pig products even during the traditionally peak period of demand growth during the New Year and Christmas holidays. Ukrainians celebrated modestly, tightening their belts, without corporate parties and mass celebrations. As a result, supply steadily exceeded demand, and some pig farmers, unable to find an opportunity to sell pork, began to reduce their livestock. Now we are faced with a situation when demand comes to life in February, and a rather democratic price on pork in retail, comparable, for example, to chicken fillet, prompts the consumer to choose pork. The entry of Ukraine into warm season, spring holidays (Pre-Lenten festival and International Women's Day) are an additional seasonal factor in increasing the demand on meat, because we all love barbecues in the open air. But this year, demand growth will run into a lack of supply, because the number of livestock has decreased, which means that the price will rise. "
Sergey Kasyanov also believes that the lack of pork supply can no longer be compensated by imports. Since the growth trend in both demand and pork prices in February this year is characteristic of both European countries and the United States. And local pig farmers need to saturate local markets. "We communicate with American colleagues, and there they predict that local pig farmers will be able to increase benefits in the summer, earning $30 and more per head against last year."
Another factor in raising the price of pork Ukrainian pig farmers call the increase in chicken prices, because at a comparable price, most consumers will choose more calorie pork. Oksana Yurchenko, President of Ukraine Association of the Pig Farmers, notes that, as in early 2021, the pork price parameters rolled back to the level of 2017, when the industry was emerging from the crisis. She confirms that at the end of last year the seasonal factor did not work, and the global price drop before the New Year holidays was unexpected for the market. For pig farmers, this turned out to be a real blow, since they planned to sell up to 40% of pigs on the eve of the New Year and Christmas celebrations. There was a splash of products on the market amid a lack of demand. As a result of the price imbalance, the pork cost fell to 34 hryvnia/kg from processors. Under these conditions, many processors have reduced their livestock, including the number of sows. "Now we are seeing a situation where demand is reviving and there is no sufficient supply. January 2021 almost coincides with January 2019, "Oksana Yurchenko emphasizes. At the same time, there were no global volumes of imports to Ukraine. The price will continue to rise as demand grows. "Thus, we can talk about a gradual exit from the price floor to the level of average prices on live pigs over the past three years," the head of ASU summarizes.
SOURCE: Infoindustry