USDA to forecast global pork production and exports in 2023

Global production in 2023 is forecast virtually unchanged year over year at 114.3 million tons as lower production in the European Union (EU), United Kingdom, and Canada is mostly offset by larger production in the United States, Vietnam, Brazil, and China. EU pork production is forecast 3 percent lower year over year to 21.8 million tons. EU hog inventories continued to decline in 2022 and are forecast at 131.8 million head in 2023, down 2 percent year-over-year. Increasing environmental regulations and weaker producer margins from increased input costs will likely continue to stifle EU pork production. Vietnam production is forecast to increase 6 percent to 3.3 million tons on industry investments and continuing recovery from the impacts of African swine fever. Brazil production is forecast 2 percent higher year over year as domestic demand and export opportunities remain strong due to competitive prices. China’s production is expected to marginally increase as consumer demand remains robust.

Global exports are expected at 10.6 million tons in 2023, 3 percent lower year over year as declines from the EU, Canada, and Mexico offset increased exports from Brazil and China. EU exports are forecast to decline 10 percent on lower exports to China, Japan, and South Korea as EU pork loses price competitiveness due to increasing input costs. Canada shipments in 2023 are forecast 4 percent lower year over year. The closure of slaughter facilities and relatively high feed prices are expected to weigh on Canada’s pork production in 2023, lowering available supplies for export. Brazil exports are forecast up 5 percent, largely on higher shipments to Chile and China. China exports are forecast higher as the easing of border controls in Japan and Hong Kong is anticipated to stimulate demand from the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector for processed pork products from China.

U.S. production and exports: U.S. pork production is forecast 1 percent higher year over year to 12.4 million tons as the relatively strong growth in slaughter during the first quarter moderates during the year. U.S. exports are forecast slightly higher in 2023 with small increases to China, Japan, and South Korea, due to increasing U.S. competitiveness and declining exports from the European Union.

SOURCE: USDA