Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture has published a forecast for the development of the situation in the global meat market until the end of 2021.
Global pork production for 2021 is revised up nearly 4 percent from April to 105.1 million tons primarily on higher production in China which was raised 8 percent to 43.8 million tons.
Since early 2021, China hog slaughter has been strong and carcass weights higher. Rebounding pork production at a time of weak seasonal demand has caused prices to drop rapidly, prompting liquidation of animals as Chinese producers have sought to protect margins. However, the reported culling of breeding animals, continued productivity challenges, and weaker producer margins are expected to slow China production growth later in the year.
Global pork exports for 2021 are revised up 2 percent to 11.8 million tons on higher estimates for all major exporters. China imports continue to underpin global trade and are raised 3 percent to 5.0 million tons. Meanwhile, Philippines imports are revised up 21 percent to 425,000 tons on lower tariffs and a continued ASF-induced supply deficit. Mexico imports are raised nearly 3 percent to 985,000 tons on high domestic prices, a stronger peso, and as an offset to strong exports.
Global beef production for 2021 is revised 1 percent lower from the April forecast to 60.8 million tons, driven by declines in Argentina, Australia, and Brazil. Argentina is tackling high beef prices by restricting exports to bolster domestic supplies, a move that will lower prices and curb incentives to further market cattle. Meanwhile, Australia production is expected to fall to a 23-year-low due to rebuilding of its national herd. In Brazil, soft domestic demand and high production costs are squeezing packers’ margins, which are expected to result in lower incentives to slaughter cattle during the year.
Global beef exports for 2021 are down 3 percent to 10.8 million tons as declines in Argentina, Australia, and Brazil more than offset gains in the United States, Canada, and New Zealand. Global imports are down 1 percent. Although demand for beef in Asia is expected to remain strong, tighter global exportable supplies are expected to slow beef imports by China and Hong Kong.
Global chicken meat production for 2021 is revised 1 percent lower from April to 101.0 million tons driven by a sharp decline in China. China chicken meat production is forecast lower on weaker demand as the swine herd recovers and pork prices decline. Leading world exporter Brazil will continue relatively robust expansion driven by foreign and domestic demand. However, among major producers, high feed grain prices and lingering impacts of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in several countries (EU, Korea, Japan) stymie poultry expansion.
Global chicken meat exports for 2021 are virtually unchanged at 12.0 million tons. Minor downward adjustments in EU and Brazil exports are offset by increases in the United States and China. Imports by Saudi Arabia are reduced, largely due to restrictions on Brazilian trade, but this is offset by upward revisions in other major markets (China, Cuba, and Angola).