Pork production and consumption to decline in EU
In its spring forecast on the pig market for the Community, the EU Commission came to similar results as the USDA. According to the Brussels-based analysts, the stocks in 2021 and the currently very high production costs will lead to the fact that pork production in the 27 Member States will fall by around 700,000 tons or 3% this year to 22.9 million tons compared to 2021.
According to estimates, the decline in production is likely to be more pronounced, especially in countries with African swine fever (ASF), including Germany, Poland and Romania. Production is expected to remain stable in Denmark and increase by 3% in Spain. It is also expected that animals will be delivered to slaughterhouses earlier and easier due to the high cost of feed.
Exports of EU pork are expected to weaken further after 2021, falling by just over 100,000 tons, or just over 2%, to 4.64 million tons. In addition to China, it is also expected that fewer goods will be shipped to Ukraine and Belarus. Exports to the UK, on the other hand, are likely to have bottomed out and will pick up again in 2022 after the logistics problems have been resolved. In terms of consumption, the Commission expects the negative trend to continue and decline by around three%; per capita consumption is expected to fall by 1.1 kg to an average of 32 kg compared to 2021.