In Jan, the cutout trended higher and was similar to 2017 levels before it dropped in Feb. For the wk ending Feb 9, the cutout was $0.77/lb., down 9% from 2017, but higher for picnic ($0.52/lb., +12%), butt ($0.89, +11%), and rib ($1.32, +9%), while lower for loin ($0.72, -4%), ham ($0.58, -7%), and belly ($1.28, -29%).

Picnic & butts should be moving seasonally lower into Feb. Loins and tenderloins trended higher the last two wks. Heavy B-I hams were strong in Jan, then dropped 18% from the wks Jan 26 to Feb 9. For wk ending Feb 9, wholesale values were higher yr-over-yr for St. Louis spareribs ($2.10, +12%), med. trimmed spareribs ($1.37, +8%), bnls butts ($1.18, +6%), and picnic cushion ($1.04, +4%), while lower for loins ($0.87, -1%), tenderloins ($2.12, -3%), bnls sirloins ($1.02, -4%), bnls rollout hams ($1.16, -4%), heavy B-I hams ($0.57, -6%), & derind bellies ($2.43, -9%). 

Stat-pork Jan-Mar.jpg

 

Cash hog carcass prices have been above yr-ago levels since last Oct, as additional plant capacity supported prices; they were $0.73/lb for wk ending Feb 10, up 2% from 2017. Lean hog futures contracts trended lower through Jan (Feb 15 CME Lean Hog Futures closing contract prices with changes from Jan 8): Apr: $69.73 (-$7.07), May: $75.90 (-$5.05), June: $80.20 (-$5.30), & July: $81.32.

Pork production was up 2.6% in 2017 to a record 11.60 mill Metric Tons, and should set a record in 2018, with USDA’s Feb forecast at 12.19 mill MT (up 5.1%) (and thru 1st wk of Feb, up 2.2% from last yr).

SOURCE: USMEF

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