USDA: Meat consumption in China could increase by 40% by 2031
As Successful Farming reports, the authors of the recently published report of the research service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expect a significant increase in pork consumption in China in the next decade.
In their opinion, this trend opens new opportunities for exporters, but, on the other hand, creates additional problems from the point of view of global food security and increasing the burden on the environment. USDA economists Fred Gale and Fengxia Dong estimate China’s combined consumption of pork, chicken, and beef was 53.9 kilograms per capita, which is about the same as the meat consumption level in Japan. Per capita consumption in the United States about twice the level.
By 2031, it may increase by 40%. China is the world leader in pork production and occupies the second position in poultry meat, the report notes. Over several decades of rapid economic growth, this Asian country has become the largest importer and consumer of meat products. The share of calories supplied by meat in China rose from 4 percent to 19 percent between the 1960s and the 2000s. Pork certainly prevails in it (about 40 kilograms per capita per year) Meat production dropped t during 2019–20 due to a severe swine disease outbreak but recovered to a record 89 million metric tons in 2021. China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (China MARA, 2022) projected a resumption of modest growth in meat output that would reach 93.1 million metric tons in 2025 and 95.7 million metric tons by 2031. Consumer demand is harder to predict.
China's population has declined, and now India has become the most populous country in the world. In addition, household income growth has slowed in recent years. Even though some Chinese residents still do not receive the physiological norm of essential nutrients, the prevalence of obesity, cardiovascular and other diseases associated with overeating has prompted health officials to recommend limiting meat consumption. As in other countries, China is concerned about the negative impact of animal husbandry on the environment.
At the same time, meat consumption in China is growing, and statistical models confirm a rather low price elasticity of demand (EDP) Based on past relationships between meat consumption, income, and prices, per capita meat consumption is projected to rise during 2022–31 by 23 kilograms. Pork consumption is projected to grow slower than the consumption of other meats.