Pork Highlights

NOVEMBER 2019:

Pork: 217,558 mt, +26% (and a new high, surpassing the previous record of 190,984 mt set in July), $622 million, +36% (a new record, above previous record of $539 million in July).
PVM: 42,254 mt, +23%, $90 million, +10%
Pork + PVM: 259,812 mt, +26% (and a new high, surpassing the previous record of 233,242 mt set in July), $713 million, +32% (a new record, above previous record of $623 million in July).

January – November 2019:

Pork: 1.937 million mt, +8%, $5.284 billion, +8%
PVM: 452,704 mt, +6%, $908 million, -8%
Pork + PVM: 2.390 million mt, +7%, $5.865 billion, +6%

November pork exports set a new monthly record (surpassing July) and were up 26% or +45,000 mt from last year, led by a year-over-year increase of 53,350 mt to China/HK. Exports were also higher to Canada (+1,750), Central America (+1,500), Australia/NZ (+1,400), and the Russia Region (+27 mt). Exports were lower to Korea (-5,900 mt), Mexico (-3,000 mt), Caribbean + DR (-1,400 mt), Taiwan (-1,400 mt), South America (-1,200 mt), Japan (-290 mt), the ASEAN (-140 mt), and the EU (-30 mt). Exports to China/HK were record large at 61,204 mt, up 679% from 7,854 mt last November and up 16,651 mt or +37% from the previous record of 44,553 mt set in July. Exports just to China were also record large at 58,529 mt, up from 6,437 last November and up 36% from the previous record of 43,004 mt set this July. Exports to HK were 2,675 mt, up 89% from last year and the highest since last January. Exports from Mexico rebounded from the lower levels in Sep and Oct to 48,387 mt in November, but exports remained below year-ago levels for the fourth consecutive month and were down 6% year-over-year. Exports to Japan were the highest since May but were down 1% from last year at 31,988 mt, while exports to Korea seasonally increased in November and were the highest since May but were down 25% from last year’s large total at 17,738 mt. Exports to Canada were strong at 19,046 mt, up 10% from last year, and one of the highest monthly volumes on record (it was the seventh month that exports have been over 19,000 mt). Exports to Australia were the fifth highest on record at 9,544 mt, up 20% from last year, but exports to New Zealand slowed (428 mt, -35% from last Nov, but Jan – Nov exports already surpassed the previous annual record set in 2012). Exports to Colombia (9,764 mt) were down 2% from last year in November, but total 2019 exports will reach a new record (and should be close to 100,000 mt). Exports to Chile (1,803 mt, -30%) also slowed in November. Exports to Honduras were record large in November at 3,371 mt, up 22% from last year, and along with Honduras, exports should also be record large in 2019 to Guatemala, Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Exports to the DR remained sluggish compared to last year’s record in November and were down 37% at 2,073 mt, below year-ago levels for the 8th consecutive month. Exports to the Philippines (1,979 mt, +15%) were higher than last year. Exports to Vietnam, which were the highest since last November, were 462 mt, down 49% from last year when exports were over 900 mt in October and November after the ASF confirmation in September. Exports to Taiwan were 486 mt in October and 482 mt in November, the lowest level since February of 2017. At 482 mt in November, exports were down 74% from last year.

In November, pvm exports were up 23% or +8,000 mt from last year as exports were higher to China/HK (+10,400 mt), South America (+800 mt), and Taiwan (+30 mt). Exports were steady to the ASEAN, and exports were lower to Korea (-960 mt), Mexico (-780 mt), Japan (-750 mt), Canada (-340 mt), Caribbean + DR (-180), Australia/NZ (-160 mt), and Central America (-110 mt). November pvm exports totaled 42,254 mt, up from the low levels in the second half of 2018 and early 2019, but below most months in 2017, when monthly exports averaged 45,331 mt. Exports to China/HK totaled 25,009 mt, up 71% from last year and the highest since April 2018. Exports to China were the third highest on record at 20,247 mt, up 308% from just 4,968 mt last November. Exports to HK, on the other hand, have been below year-ago levels every month since June 2018, and were 4,762 mt in November, down 51% from last year.

Exports to Mexico were the lowest since last December at 9,150 mt, down 8% from last year. Exports were also lower to Canada (1,507 mt, -18%), Korea (683 mt, -58%), and Japan (606 mt, -55%). Exports slowed to the Philippines (544 mt, -38%), while exports to Vietnam remained large for the third consecutive month (1,933 mt, +21%, following 1,648 mt in Sep and 3,451 mt in Oct). Exports to Chile maintained momentum and were up 94% from last year at 720 mt, and total 2019 pvm exports to Chile will be around 10,000 mt, up from the 2013 record of 6,198 mt. PVM exports were also higher to Colombia in November at 511 mt, +373%. Exports were higher year-over-year to Taiwan (289 mt, +13%), but 2019 total pvm exports to Taiwan will be below 2018.

January – November exports were up 162,500 mt from last year driven by the 230,200 mt increase to China/HK. Exports were also higher to Australia/NZ (+28,100 mt), South America (+21,600 mt), Central America (+11,800 mt), Canada (+11,200 mt), and the Russia Region – mainly Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine (+650 mt). Exports were lower to Mexico (-75,700 mt), Korea (-26,200 mt), Japan (-23,500 mt), the ASEAN (-7,750 mt), the Caribbean + DR (-6,600 mt), Taiwan (-1,600 mt), the EU (-580 mt), and Africa (-500 mt).

November pork exports accounted for 26.8% of pork production (the highest on record) and 29.7% when including variety meats (the highest since last April), as compared to 22.0% and 24.5% for November 2018. For January – November, pork exports accounted for 23.0% of production and 26.4% when adding variety meats, up from 22.4% and 25.7% last year.

November pork export value per head averaged $62.90/head (the highest since 2014), up $14.10/head or +29% from $48.80/head last November. For January – November, pork export value per head averaged $52.24/head, up $0.79/head or +2% from $51.46/head last year.

SOURCE: USMEF