The Ministry of Agriculture assessed the pace of recovery of meat production
Pork production is expected to recover from outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) in several regions in the first half of 2022. This forecast was given by the Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev. In the poultry industry, at the beginning of this year, there was also a difficult situation: the livestock decreased due to an unfavorable epizootic situation and problems with the import of hatching eggs. According to Patrushev, the department expects to reach 2020 indicators for poultry meat production by the end of this year. For beef, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts an increase in production volumes by about 1.5% by the end of this year.
Industry experts differ in their opinions. Some believe that the plans to restore production announced by the Minister of Agriculture correspond to the real situation. But these forecasts are made considering the improvement in the epizootic situation, and only in this case they will be realized. At the same time, there are no other significant factors that could radically change the situation and prevent the recovery of production volumes.
Poultry sources say the ministry's forecasts for a recovery in poultry production are too optimistic. Perhaps we should expect a decrease of 1.5% compared to last year. This follows from the dynamics of poultry meat production and the growing problems with the provision of feed components, without which the productivity of herds may decline.
According to the Rosptitsesoyuz, in January-September of this year, the production of poultry meat in slaughter weight amounted to 3.6 million tons, which is 1.7% less than in the same period in 2020, pork - 3 million tons (-0.1%), beef - 1 million tons (+ 1.5%), total meat - 7.7 million tons, which is 0.6% less than in 2020. According to the Union, the decline in production volumes, which was observed in the first quarter of this year, was restored to 2020 levels in the second and third quarters. In the fourth quarter, production will also be in line with last year's level.
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